On the Brexit

On the Brexit

To Brexit Or Not To Brexit

Please Englishmen, no Brexit!  Only mad dogs would sever this union.  There has never, ever, been peace in Europe.  Besides the obvious problem -- the tradition of war-- it is also just not good for anyone’s economy, not the EU member nation economies, not the US economy, not anyone’s. Europe really outdid itself in the twentieth century.  You would think things couldn’t get worse, with the Hundred Years War, the Napoleonic Wars just to name two, but a frantic grab for colonies and wealth degenerated into World War 1 and 2.  Most European countries counted their dead in the multi-millions.  Despite all the planning, machinations, and investment in colonies, the European economy generally disintegrated, needing a Marshall Plan to revive it.

A strong united Europe is even more necessary than ever.  A rogue North Korea threatens nuclear war, Al Qaeda and ISIS need to be defeated (and they would applaud a Brexit).

The unfortunately labelled PIIGS nations (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) are all financially troubled and EU membership is threatened there.  A Grexit, and certainly a Brexit, might be all that is needed for the big breakup. So United Kingdom, you’ve got to stay.

You might consider what Scotland would do if the UK left the EU.  Might they not want to keep their membership in the EU?  How would this effect the next vote on whether Scotland should leave the UK?  As for the UK economy, already sterling is at a seven year low against the dollar, largely on fear of a Brexit (http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-sterling-idUKKCN0VY2IW).  Let’s keep it all together cousins on June 23rd (the upcoming referendum).

Having said all this in the way of scare tactics, this doesn’t mean that the EU has reached some pinnacle of organizational development.  The exact contractual relationships among the countries can, will and should change, according to circumstances.  As long as the spirit of European unity remains, a loosening of certain ties might even be desirable.  This is exactly what David Cameron wants to do, have the best of both worlds.  Cameron has already negotiated with European leaders for UK "special status" within the bloc if it remains."Britain will be out of the parts of Europe that do not work for us -- we will be permanently and legally protected from being a part of an ever-closer union," he said.  Britain would remain in "the driving seat of the world's biggest market," he said, and could "never be part of a European super-state", and would be "stronger, safer and better off.” Sounds about right to me, but Cameron faces stiff opposition in his quest to “Bremain”.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/22/europe/britain-boris-johnson-eu-brexit/

 

Comments

James Rice's picture James Rice | July 2, 2016 5:38 am MST

Dr. Daily,

Now that we are on the other side of the Brexit vote, I am interested in hearing your thoughts on how we got to this point and what the next steps are. Clearly British citizens felt a need to express their concerns about negative consequences beginning to exceed the positive value of membership in the EU. It is fairly easy to articulate the economic, social, and security issues the UK has been experiencing in recent years.  According to the book "Moored to the Continent" (Baimbridge, Burkett, & Wyman, 2012) it is "doubtful that the UK has received a net benefit from EU membership." If it's true that there is no economic or security benefit to UK membership in the EU, then why should they continue as members?

I look forward to your thoughts?

Dr. Jim Rice

Louis Daily's picture Louis Daily | October 12, 2016 11:33 pm MST

We have had several months to catch our breath after the Brexit vote and still nothing is clear.  In fact the U.K is still a member of the EU until the UK invokes Article 50, and that turns out to be more complicated than we thought.  An explicit Act of Parliament may even be needed.  The UK could even stay in some capacity such as a member of the European Free Trade Association.  

Many possible consequences of Brexit exist but not much has materialized yet.  Scotland could remain in the EU.  Even the status of London might be a question.  London Mayor Sadiq Khan has raised the startling possibility of an independent London in the EU.  Will the Netherlands and other countries also hold a referendum?  What about British Gibraltar?  

We can probably count on Brits to eventually vote their pocketbooks. The economic consequences remain murky.  Some predictions were dire.  Moody’s, Fitch, and Standard & Poor all downgraded the U.K.  In August, the Bank of England cut interest rates and took other measures to counteract an expected imminent slowdown in GDP.  In September, however, the Bank and other commentators stated that all the negativity was premature (maybe the interest rate cut worked!).  

By most accounts (the Societe Generale bank in France and the IMF for example), the jury is still out on the economics, although it is becoming clear that the prophets of imminent doom were wrong. It may take a year or so to get a handle on whether the UK, or the EU for that matter, will emerge stronger or weaker. Meanwhile the UK will remain an EU member and Brits will gain more time and information to ponder their decision. Stay tuned.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3698476/IMF-clowns-admit-got-wrong-Brexit-doom-gloom-warnings-saying-British-economy-grow-faster-Germany-France.html

https://www.change.org/p/sadiq-khan-declare-london-independent-from-the-uk-and-apply-to-join-the-eu

 

londonbridgefallingdown.jpg (624×416)

Louis Daily's picture Louis Daily | October 12, 2016 11:39 pm MST

Dr. Jim Rice,

 

Thanks for your comments and requesting follow up.  Sorry for the delay.  Please see some cursory thoughts above.  More to follow.

 

thanks

Lou